Macro Analysis

The combination of rising absolute prices for crude oil in recent weeks, coupled with the lackluster growth in the global economy, translates into a high oil expense indicator. Just how high are crude oil prices nowadays? Well, by one measure, the cost now stands at $96.25 a barrel – or at least, that’s what it [...]

The world’s major advanced economies are slowing. World trade has eased and uncertainty about the situation in Europe continues to weigh on investor confidence. Financial markets, especially in Europe, are increasingly reliant on central bank stimulus to avoid complete meltdown. Recent data showed that Spanish banks’ net borrowing from the ECB rose to EUR 375.5bn [...]

There’s only one tiny glimmer of good economic news coming out of Greece these days – the small uptick in industrial production – and the grimmer headlines will continue to overshadow it. Industrial production in the eurozone’s most troubled member nation, Greece, is on the rise – at last. But before you break out the [...]

US GDP growth has eased over the past two quarters, from 4.1% QoQ annualised in the final quarter of 2011, to just 1.5% in the three months to June. Of course, the US is by no means unique in this respect. With no resolution in sight to the Euro Area debt crisis, the global economy [...]

The ECB president has announced a bond-buying plan to help Spain and Italy with their borrowing costs at the short end of the yield curve, triggering a stock market rally but leaving questions about how the plan will work. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi has pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the [...]

The UK economy is struggling. GDP fell 0.7% in the three months to June, marking the third consecutive quarter of decline, and further prolonging the country’s double-dip recession. Output has now fallen in five of the last seven quarters, and is some 4.5% below its pre-recession peak. UK economic malaise is widespread, but a key [...]

July was another difficult month for investors, as Spain’s financial and economic crisis deepened and the eurozone’s problems spread well beyond its borders. The themes that have dominated the direction of global financial markets and determined the shape of investors’ returns continued to prevail during July. Indeed, the only “new” investment theme to emerge is [...]

After a brief respite thanks to some rain, the drought resumed its tight grip on the US Midwest and already-high commodities prices are moving higher still. One of the worst droughts in decades is poised to wreak havoc on soybean and corn harvests in the United States, but as this week’s Chart of the Week [...]

Europe’s debt crisis has a habit of flaring during the summer months, and this year looks no different. In recent days, Spain’s ten-year spread over bunds has come within a whisker of its 22-year high, trading at over 600bps earlier this week. Its previous peak was 668bps, achieved on the 7th of October 1992 during [...]

Bond yields are climbing in Spain and Italy once more – and this time, yields are rising in Germany as well, as fears grow that the eurozone crisis is becoming more difficult to contain. The financial markets appear to be becoming increasingly frustrated at the slow pace at which Europe’s policymakers are working to try [...]