In spite of a promising Barron’s article, three factors are weighing against a further move up in Calpine shares heading into the company’s anticipated earnings report on July 27^th: earnings forecasts, revenue forecasts and a cautious stock chart pattern.

According to StarMine’s SmartEstimate for earnings, investors should expect a wider quarterly loss closer to $-0.045 per share, versus the latest mean loss of $-0.014.  The weaker number comes from analysts that StarMine figures have a better track record of making such forecasts for Calpine shares.

Next quarter’s earnings are shaping up as weaker as well for the natural gas and geothermal power producer.  The SmartEstimate for that period of a gain of $0.330 is 10% below the current mean of $0.367.

Calpine revenues may be weaker as well.  While the mean value of $1.149 billion has come down 11% in the past seven days, the SmartEstimate of $1.016 billion is nearly 12% worse.   For the next quarter, mean revenue estimates of $1.852 billion are down 8%, with the SmartEstimate of $1.538 billion 17% lower.

Another yellow flag for technical types lies in Calpine’s weekly stock chart.  Last week’s action in a wide range up and down, but ending at around the same price as when things started, created a “doji” candlestick pattern.  That’s a sign of caution, and in some cases acts as a reversal signal of the latest upward price movement.  So look for a giving back of at least some of the 10% price gains in the past 4 weeks.

There’s potentially good earnings news in the longer term.  SmartEstimates for earnings in Calpine’s 2013 fiscal year of $0.789 are almost 11% above the mean of $0.711.  So investor patience could be rewarded.

Heading into Friday’s earnings report, it might make sense to let the dust settle after a nice move up in Calpine’s common shares.