Alcoa – History and Projections Point toward Selling Into Strength
Although Alcoa (AA.N) reported $0.06 quarterly earnings versus a $0.055 estimate, to officially kick off S&P earnings season, its history and future prospects point toward using any strength to sell shares, and to short shares for those inclined.
StarMine’s SmartEstimate, which includes heavier weights for analysts with better forecasting skills for Alcoa already shows a 13.7% divergence for current Q3 quarter (SmartEstimate $0.09 vs. mean of $0.104) and a 25% divergence for the following Q4 quarter (SmartEstimate $0.137 vs. mean of $0.183).
Other StarMine Models rank Alcoa low among other North American companies, including Short Interest, with only a 16 out of 100 ranking, and Smart Holdings at 6 out of 100. Smart Holdings looks at a company’s fundamental factors and matches them against find managers’ purchasing profiles to predict the attractiveness of likely purchase over the next 90 days. Alcoa’s characteristics appear to be highly unattractive at this point for such purchases. TR Research Analyst Greg Harrison notes the volatility of Alcoa’s earnings the past several quarters might drive investors seeking earnings stability to look elsewhere.
Finally, the accompanying chart shows that Alcoa’s underperformance since the S&P 500 all time high in October 2007 continues, even after the major drop in 2008. It’s a widely held stock with almost 59% of outstanding shares held by institutions, including passive index funds.